Is Iran Going to War against Israel? A Look into the Tension between the Two Nations
The question of whether Iran is going to war against Israel is a pressing issue in today’s global climate. With tensions between the two nations running high, it is essential to take a closer look at the history of their relationship and the current situation to answer this question.
Understanding the Tensions between Iran and Israel
The rivalry between Iran and Israel began decades ago, with deep roots in the Middle Eastern conflicts. Here are the key factors that have shaped the tension:
- Iranian Revolution (1979): The revolution in Iran, led by Ayatollah Khomeini, led to a Shia-led Islamic government being established in the country. This changed the dynamics in the region, as many Sunni countries, including Arab states and Israel, became concerned about the spread of Shia Islamic influence.
- 1980s’ Wars: The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) saw Iran supporting various Shia rebel groups in Iraq, including those aligned with Saddam Hussein’s Baathist government. Meanwhile, Israel saw this conflict as an opportunity to gain a strategic ally in Saddam’s Iraq. The tensions between Iran and Iraq only grew, fueled by Iran’s support of Hezbollah and Hamas.
- 2015 Nuclear Agreement: The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, was signed in 2015, aimed at constraining Iran’s nuclear capabilities in exchange for sanctions relief. This deal was bitterly opposed by Israel, leading to continued tensions between the two nations.
Iran’s Proxies and Terrorism
Iran’s support of various proxies and terrorist groups has significantly contributed to the ongoing tension:
- Hezbollah: A Lebanon-based Shia militia, sponsored by Iran, has received extensive financial and military aid. Hezbollah is considered a legitimate military force in Lebanon and has participated in various international conflicts.
- Hamas: The Palestinian group, backed by Iran and Syria, has been the dominant political and military force in the Gaza Strip since its 2007 coup against Fatah.
- Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC): An elite branch of Iran’s military, tasked with supporting and protecting its proxies abroad. The IRGC is known for its covert operations, sabotage, and intelligence gathering.
Confrontation and Escalation
The past decade has seen several confrontational episodes between Iran and Israel:
- 2019–2020 Iran missile attacks on Iraq: As tensions with the US flared up, Iran responded by launching missiles at coalition forces and the US military base in Iraq. Israeli intelligence has also been repeatedly attacked, leading to suspected Iranian retaliation.
- 2012 Iranian nuclear plot: Iran was accused of planning to assassinate Israel’s chief diplomat in Bahrain. In response, the Israeli Navy raided a ship on the high seas, alleged to be carrying Iranian supplies.
- 2012 Operation Pillar of Cloud: Israeli forces launched air and artillery strikes on the Gaza Strip, targeting the Palestinian faction Hamas, leading to multiple Israeli casualties. This sparked an escalation between Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas, as well as with Egypt and the PLO.
Current Escalation and the ‘Stress Points’
Several "stress points" are exacerbating the existing tension between Iran and Israel:
- US Re-entry into JCPOA Talks: In 2018, the US withdrawn from the JCPOA, leaving Iran to try to find a new global consensus on the deal.
- Saudi-Iran Rapprochement Fiasco: The 2020 visit by Saudi officials to the Iranian capital only briefly ended, as conflicts resurfaced over ballistic missile issues.
- Qom-Iran Relations: Qom-Iran tensions have been raised as Tehran and Qom disagree over oil prices, as both cities are rich in petroleum reserves.
Table: Recent Incidents in the Middle East
| Year | Incident | Victim/Victimized Party |
|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Attack on Israeli merchant ship | Israeli merchant shipping |
| 2015 | Jerusalem Synagogue Terrorist Attack | Israeli synagogue worshipers |
| 2015 | Iran Shooting down a US Drone | Unarmed US surveillance aircraft |
| 2015 | Execution of Iranian-Chilean Wrestler in Iran | Hamza, a professional wrestler |
| 2017 | Alleged IRGC Plot on US-Iranian Intellectuals | Several US-accredited diplomats |
| 2017 | Israeli War on Terror Groups in Gaza Strip | Israeli forces and non-state combatants |
| 2020 | Naval War against Yemen | Vessels belonging to Houthis in Yemen |
Probability of War
While numerous "stress points" plague the relations between Iran and Israel, the question remains as to whether outright war between the two sides is probable. This probability lies in the uncertain waters of Middle Eastern tensions.
There are some factors making a direct conflict less probable:
- Diversification of US-Iran Interests: The rapprochement between both countries and their shared opponents (terrorists) weakens their incentive for total war.
- Increased Arab Coordination: Unification against the common adversaries might decrease tensions between different Middle Eastern states.
- Terrorist Financing and Money Laundering: An effective international legal system addressing terrorist financing reduces Iran’s leverage.
Factors supporting war are:
- Growing Military Capabilities: Each side has substantially upgraded their military capabilities (including cyberwarfare capacities), providing more opportunities to respond in a conflict situation.
- Escalating Cyber Attacks: Sophisticated cyber attacks raise concerns that such tactics can cause unforeseen consequences beyond simple conflict.
- IRGC-Hezbollah-Iraq Coordination: Unconventional warfare capacities increase by cooperation between pro-Iran groups.
From an assessment, we can note that an Iranian war with Israel has not been particularly close; the probability does, however, remain ever-present and susceptible to numerous unpredictable incidents or policy mishaps that could escalate further tensions and create a highly unstable scenario.
