Is China Going to War with the United States?
One of the most pressing global security concerns in recent times is the prospect of China going to war with the United States. The China-US relationship has been tenuous at best, and the possibility of conflict arises from a combination of unresolved issues, regional tensions, and strategic interests. Despite efforts to maintain a detente, the likelihood of confrontation cannot be ruled out altogether.
Historical Perspective
To understand the chances of war between China and the United States, one must delve into the context of their complex history.
• Taiwan question: The relationship between mainland China and Taiwan has remained strained since the Chinese civil war in 1949. The United States maintained diplomatic ties with Taiwan while China viewed it as an occupied territory.
• Cold War and détente: During the Cold War, the United States, China, and the Soviet Union formed a strategic tripod. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the relations between the US and China began to thaw, although Taiwan remained a sticking point.
• Rising China: In the 1980s, China undertook economic reforms, driving rapid growth and emergence as a global economic power.
Current Issues and Diverging Interests
Today, China and the United States have significant gaps in their agendas, pushing them closer to a militarized confrontation.
National Security and Territory
One of the most contentious points is the issue of territories claimed by China, most notably:
• Nansha Islands: Chinese-claimed reefs and coral reefs in the South China Sea, occupied by Manila in the 1970s.
• India-China border disputes: Territory disputes along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Himalayan region.
Trade Policy and Economic Interests
Trade tensions between the United States and China have deteriorated significantly:
• Tariffs: The implementation of tariffs by both governments has led to a trade war, with retaliatory tariffs on billions of dollars-worth of goods.
• Intellectual property violations: The United States accusations of China’s theft and forced transfer of intellectual property.
Technological Leadership and Competition
The current tech landscape is another sensitive area:
• Five Eyes Alliance: The unofficial intelligence-sharing partnership between Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States presents a challenge for China in maintaining its digital sovereignty.
Regional Balance and ASEAN
In Southeast Asia, China’s increasing footprint is viewed with suspicion, especially by smaller nations: ASEAN’s Five Principles emphasize the values of non-interference and cooperation, while China often seeks to advance its interest through economic investments and a stronger military presence.
• Malacca Straits: China’s proposed infrastructure projects and military logistics hub in Malaysia raise suspicions among ASEAN members who are concerned about the disruption of the maritime trade rout.
Ways Toward Conflict Escalation
Given these factors and diverging interests, both nations are poised to encounter escalation points, including proxy wars and clashes over territorial disputes.
Table 1. Conflict Escalation Potentials
| Issue/Event | Low | Moderate | High | Very High |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan annexation | ||||
| South China Sea conflict with Vietnam | ||||
| Trade-war retaliation | ||||
| Regional rivalries | ||||
| 5G espionage | ||||
| ASEAN tensions rise |
Conclusion
In Summary, while there may not be a single catastrophic event that sets off full-scale war between China and the United States, unresolved tensions and competition over conflicting interests will likely continue.
To mitigate these risks and avoid conflict escalation, stakeholders should focus on:
Recommendations
1 Enhance trade diplomacy and negotiation mechanisms
2 Strengthen dialogue-based communication channels
3 Gradually establish a peace treaty for the Taiwan straits
4 Intensify economic cooperation with ASEAN countries
5 Support the advancement of digital diplomacy and infrastructure in the Asia-Pacific area
6 Strengthen regional cooperative agreements and dialogue
7 Implement early warning systems and conflict containment strategies
Both China and the United States must recognize that their joint economic prosperity, global prosperity, and security are indivisible. Only through prudent diplomatic efforts, cooperation over common interests, and mutually beneficial agreements can the tensions be alleviated, war avoided, and the relations improved.
By T. Lee
