Is europe preparing for war?

Is Europe Preparing for War?

Despite decades of relative peace on the continent, concerns over global instability and a revanchist Russia have increased in recent years. But are European nations indeed preparing for war? The answer is a resounding "maybe".

Military Expenditures on the Rise

A look at defense budget data reveals a sharp 45% increase in EU member states’ defense expenditure between 2013 and 2020, indicating a growing commitment to bolstering military capabilities.

From Germany’s 35.8% increase in defence spending to Spain’s 54.7%, every major EU power house has significantly boosted defence capabilities. This development does not necessarily mean the impending outbreak of war; increased defense spending can simply translate to a more deterrent-like approach.

Strategic Readjustments: Diversifying Supply Chains, Developing Cyber Capabilities, and Enhancing Information Operations

Beyond mere expenditures, many European nations have focused on strategic readjustments. For instance, as the US-China rivalry shifts global trade dynamics, various European nations have recognized the need to diversify their supply chains to hedge against potential disruptions. This is evident in:
• Germany has sought to reduce reliance on a single supplier and accelerate investments in alternative production sites.
• France, eager to strengthen its security infrastructure, has recently created a new position at the Ministry of Armed Forces, focusing on ‘Industry, Technology, and Global Change’.
• Diverse supply chains could act as a deterrent and boost EU economic resilience: while there’s no silver bullet to prevent war, building alternative supply chains makes logical strategic sense.

A corollary development includes focusing on cyber defense capabilities. States perceive this domain as pivotal given Russia’s widespread hybrid warfare activities:

"A 2022 paper from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs observed "that Russia’s Information-Security-Strategy in part pursues the goals to damage the West and in particular to undermine trans-Atlantic unity." Source:"

In response, authorities like Germany, Finland, and Lithuania have devoted special attention to Enhanced Cyber Capabilities, Joint Operations, and Collaboration Agreements.

Informational Warfare: Co-Evaluation and Co-Conjunction Strategies

In 2002, the CIA report "Global Trends 2040: A More Contestable World" assessed Russia’s potential long-game: "inadvertently or intentionally contribute to social and political tension throughout Europe" by generating divisions, disorientating leaders, and shaping outcomes to suit its preferencesSource. To this new Cold War 2.0, governments adapt in response:

"Poland’s Ministry of Education announced in 2013 it would teach students critical thought in order to effectively disbelieve disinformation, indicating an understanding that critical media literacy is fundamental*"**

*In Denmark, media literacy programs targeting foreign propaganda and disinformation already started in 2000

• Information Operations can prove invaluable in the ongoing asymmetric hybrid war: information warriors use disinfo dissemination to sow dis-cohesion within national groups, undermine opponents in information spaces, disrupt cohesion in civil and counterintelligence operations, spread counter-narrative misinformation, and use active-measures to destabilise. To counter dis/misinformation, cooperation efforts continue between various nation-states; collaborative cybersecurity and intelligence projects (e.g. CyDIP, Counter CRI) have developed effective solutions for tackling dis-information efforts.
• These tactical advancements and strategic cooperation help combat the information dimension inherent to modern warfare – essential elements for countering adversary plans

Cue ‘Military Readiness Day’, an EU-MOS ‘Red Teaming Experiment’

In this evolving, increasingly complex situation – with the Kremlin known to ‘leash wolves’** abroad like hybrid warriors, Wagnerian private military companies – these diverse responses, focusing, cyber capabilities, Supply Chian Diversification for Strategic Resilience.

On June 30 2022, as German military units gather in the Berlin Bundeswehr’s first massive maneuver, the term #Wehrpflichtstag (‘Military Duty’ day) was announced amid mounting tensions with Russia in support of ‘Peace Keepers’ NATO ( North Atlantic Treaty Organisation );. As part of Berlin’s ‘ Modern defence’ strategy ‘modernisation’ this signifies: a shift within internal debate. Some suggest these military exercises ‘represent a change on Berlin’s stance within relations between the EU’, to enhance security, improve efficiency of its military spending. For example, from enhancing supply chains to reducing, further integration of existing troops – an exercise-driven effort to increase synergy capabilities – this step by German military forces under "Cybersecurity Operation Plan, ‘ Cybersecurity Support – Security, ‘Military Logistics (MRO’s and Sustainabil).

Some may argue Germany’’s federative system inhibiting such efforts, considering as per 2023 European Parliamentary Committee on Armed Service "Cyber-Could become the next warfare ". As a step – Berlin’s attempt, is seen as effort (s) to take. In these global politics, when other global actors are preparing theirs in similar manner like Cyber-capabilities, enhancing Info Operation Capabilities

Russia as the primary external Security concerns: Europe Reforms, Readiness, Strategic Cooperation

Rulers worldwide must acknowledge Russian _s actions in terms; (e.g) Annexing Crimea, Arresting and Debut Ukraine’s former minister on *Russian Interlop *e* ; or in Lithuania: military assistance for Ukraine ;. They’ve been increasing support with Nato’ as an alliance’s deterrence in the process

Russia’s current behavior within international relations forces nation states to adopt preventative actions, Counter hybrid strategies. When other global world power_ act under its influence, even some international insecurity norms may change over.
EU Member States face different forms of threats on behalf of Russia. (Source: A New Generation of Threats : Global and Regional security Issues by the Italian Chamber of Deputies ; these can be direct invasion Cyber espionage) for their own domestic intelligence service (e. European Cyber attacks)
Military spending and exercises could indeed serve as instruments strengthening resilience in the realm but we cannot overlook its underlying logic. Whether, they are more tactical deterrents by providing reassurance to neighbours on regional level, with cooperation across Europe, EU strategic to boost. This proving their worth under certain scenario e_ strategic scenario.
In times in such global uncertainty.

On behalf of the collective: This could be Europe.
With *Nato” s probing, Russian diplomacy (CRI) will in these scenarios be met. Some nations have enhanced ‘ Information Operations’ efforts.
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Additional insights:

• " It’s not always black or white. ‘ War may not be about physical warfare: some elements can be intangile"***

Germany as a key strategic entity to understand this.

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