What if Iraq Won the Iran-Iraq War?
The Iran-Iraq War, which lasted from 1980 to 1988, was a devastating conflict that saw the two regional powers engaged in a bloody and destructive struggle. Despite being considered the underdog, Iraq was able to hold its own against Iran’s much larger military and eventually achieved a decisive victory. In this article, we will explore what the world might look like if Iraq had won the war.
Short-Term Consequences
Contents
Political and Military Aftermath
If Iraq had won the war, the immediate aftermath would likely have been characterized by:
- Celebrations and jubilation in Baghdad and other Iraqi cities as the Iraqi military would have been hailed as heroes and the war would have been seen as a glorious victory.
- Capture and occupation of Iranian territory, including key cities like Ahvaz and Kermanshah, which would have given Iraq control over the western regions of Iran.
- Major losses for Iran’s military, with many senior commanders and troops either killed, wounded, or captured. This would have weakened Iran’s military and its ability to resist further attacks.
Regional Consequences
Shift in Regional Balance of Power
If Iraq had won the war, the regional balance of power would likely have been dramatically altered. Key implications might have included:
- Iraq emerging as the dominant power in the Gulf region, with the US and other Western powers likely to have adjusted their relations with Iraq accordingly.
- Iranian economy severely damaged, with major oil fields and infrastructure targeted during the war. This would have had severe implications for Iran’s economy and its ability to resist Western economic pressure.
- Soviet Union gaining an upper hand, as Iraq would have become a more attractive partner for the Soviets, potentially leading to a closer relationship between the two nations.
Global Consequences
Global Impact and Diplomatic Repercussions
If Iraq had won the war, the global implications would likely have been significant:
- Increased tensions with the United States, which had supported Iran during the war. This could have led to a deterioration in US-Iraq relations, potentially affecting global oil supplies and economic stability.
- Reevaluation of regional security, as the Gulf War had raised concerns about the security of oil supplies and global stability. Iraq’s victory could have led to a renewed focus on security guarantees and alliances in the region.
- International diplomatic landscape, as the victory would have made Iraq a key player in global politics, potentially influencing the outcomes of international summits and diplomatic negotiations.
Economic Consequences
Oil, Sanctions, and Reconstruction
If Iraq had won the war, the economic consequences would have been far-reaching:
- Control of Iraqi oil reserves, which would have given Iraq significant economic leverage, potentially allowing it to dictate prices and trade agreements.
- Reimposition of sanctions by the United States and other Western powers, in response to concerns about Iraq’s human rights record, WMDs, and potential threats to regional stability.
- Reconstruction efforts, as Iraq would have had to rebuild and recover from the devastating war. This would have required significant investment and international support.
Societal Consequences
Impact on Iraqi Society
If Iraq had won the war, the societal implications would have been significant:
- Victory celebrations and pride, as Iraqis would have felt a sense of accomplishment and national pride.
- Increased militarization and surveillance, as the war had already led to significant expansion of Iraq’s military and security apparatus. This could have led to increased control and monitoring of civilian society.
- Impact on women’s rights and civil liberties, as the war had already seen a crackdown on women’s rights and civil liberties in Iran. Iraq might have followed suit, potentially limiting individual freedoms.
Key Players’ Reactions
Reaction from Key Players
If Iraq had won the war, key players might have reacted as follows:
- US President Ronald Reagan: likely would have increased pressure on Iraq to curb its aggressive expansion and ensure regional stability.
- Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev: might have seen Iraq’s victory as an opportunity to strengthen ties with the newly empowered nation and expand Soviet influence in the region.
- Iranian Government: would likely have faced significant domestic criticism and instability, potentially leading to political upheaval and internal strife.
Conclusion
What if Iraq had won the Iran-Iraq War? The scenario presents a range of complex and far-reaching consequences, from shifts in regional power dynamics to global diplomatic and economic repercussions. While the immediate aftermath would have seen Iraqi celebrations and a major defeat for Iran, the longer-term implications would have been more nuanced and complex. As the world navigates the ever-changing landscape of global politics, understanding the what-ifs of the Iran-Iraq War provides valuable insight into the fragility of regional balances of power and the enduring consequences of war.
Key Statistics:
- Duration of the Iran-Iraq War: 8 years (1980-1988)
- Estimated casualties: 1.5 million Iranians, 200,000 Iraqis
- Cost of the war: Estimated $800 billion
- Oil reserves in Iran and Iraq: 106.5 billion barrels (Iran), 113.8 billion barrels (Iraq)
- Estimated number of internally displaced persons: 2 million
Key Timeline:
- 1980: Iraq invades Iran
- 1982: Iran gains momentum and launches a series of counterattacks
- 1986: Iraq uses chemical weapons against Iranian forces
- 1988: Iraq and Iran sign a ceasefire agreement
Note: This article provides a hypothetical exploration of what would have happened if Iraq had won the Iran-Iraq War. While some aspects of this scenario may be speculative, the analysis is based on a combination of historical context, diplomatic analysis, and expert insights.
