The Unrelenting Conflict: Who is Winning the War Between Russia and Ukraine?
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, often referred to as the War in Donbas, has been raging since 2014. The conflict started when Russian-backed separatists rose up against the government of Ukraine, leading to widespread violence and displacement. After six years of continuous battles, the war remains stagnant, with both sides exhibiting a strong determination to protect their interests. As a result, the question lingers: Who is winning the war Russia or Ukraine?
Contents
**The Battered Battlefield**
The war in Eastern Ukraine has resulted in staggering losses on both sides. The United Nations reports that over 13,000 people have been killed, while millions more have been forced to flee their homes, displaced and struggling to cope with the humanitarian crisis.
• Civilians accounted for 70% of the total deaths
• Over 500 civilians were killed or wounded in 2020 alone
• Half of the population in occupied territories has no access to basic services
On the battlefield, Ukrainian forces have been making small, incremental gains, capturing areas such as Maryinka, Avdeyevka, and Ilovaysk, which have been strategic battlegrounds. However, they have also faced intense rocket attacks and artillery strikes by Russian-backed separatist forces, leading to widespread devastation.
**Military Balance**
The Global Firepower (GFP) Military Strength Ranking, a widely recognized benchmark of military power, reveals Ukraine’s overall capabilities surpassing those of separatist forces:
- Ukraine: +8.5 on a 100-point scale, ranking 24th
- Separatist forces: +6.3, ranking 28th
However, Ukraine’s military is more mobile, with larger infantry forces (43,000 vs. 22,000), better equipped with mobilized reserve troops, and enjoying stronger diplomatic backing from NATO nations. Separatist forces, on the other hand, rely heavily on Russian support, including advanced technology, military equipment, and supplies.
**Russian Support: Strength and Weaknesses**
Despite Russian President Putin’s reluctance to openly admit its direct involvement, multiple organizations and governments have evidence to suggest that Russia still plays a significant role in supporting separatist forces:
- Reports of Russian troops wearing distinct uniforms and insignia without names, rank, or personal information
- Destruction of Ukrainian assets and infrastructure by unguided aerial bombs and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) from Russian-made ammunition and vehicles
- Tweets from separatist commanders claiming to have received help and equipment from Russia
**Geopolitical Ramifications**
As tensions continue to escalate between Moscow and Kyiv, concerns arise about the regional implications of further escalations:
• Potential for NATO’s activation of Article 5, obliging its members to come to the aid of an attacked Ukraine, sparking a broader European security crisis
• United States’ involvement: Biden Administration has maintained diplomatic pressure on Putin, with military exercises and sanctions imposed in response to Russian actions
• European Economic Security: Ukraine’s independence may impact the fate of Europe’s energy dependence** on Russian gas
In conclusion, while neither Russia nor Ukraine can claim clear-cut victory, a few factors tilt in Ukraine’s favor:
• Ukraine enjoys broader international support and military mobilization
• Ukrainian armed forces are more maneuverable and better equipped
Conversely, Russia:
• Maintains support for separatist forces, even if indirectly
• Possesses overwhelming numerical and technological superiority, bolstering its ability to escalate conflict
Ultimately, until both sides agree on meaningful dialogue and concessions, this protracted conflict may not yield a definitive answer to the question. Both Russia and Ukraine have made significant progress but at great human and environmental costs. A delicate dance of diplomacy and politics may be the key to restoring peace and stability in this turbulent region.
