Will u.s. go to war with Russia?

Will U.S. Go to War with Russia? A Possibility or a Speculative Scenarios?

Background and Current Relations

The United States and Russia have had a long-standing tumultuous relationship, characterized by periods of diplomatic thaw and intense Cold War-esque animosity. Recent tensions between the two countries have increased significantly, largely fueled by disagreements over Russia’s involvement in Ukraine and accusations of election interference by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. While diplomatic channels remain open, the prospect of an outbreak of hostilities has increased the concern of world leaders, analysts, and civilians alike.

Threat of War: Major Provocations and Risks

Multiple factors have been highlighted as potential triggers that could escalate tensions and spark military confrontation. Some of these threats include:

• Elections and Disputes Over Sovereignty: A re-run of a hypothetical cyberattack on a US presidential election, particularly with President Putin facing intense public criticism, could precipitate an immediate military response. In addition, US-Ukrainian partnerships against separatist forces could invite retaliation from Russian authorities, as seen in Crimea (2014) and Ukraine’s Donbas region (2014-2020).
• Air or Maritime Incidents: Protracted tensions between American, British, and NATO maritime operations in the North Atlantic (e.g., convoy routes) or encounters near territorial waters, and hypothetical misunderstandings over "enemy aircraft" in proximate airspaces, raise alarm among military strategists, experts, and civilian spectators.

Recent Incidentals

Some notable flashpoints or close calls to keep an eye on have:

• Syrian Battlefield Conflict (2017): Russian airstrikes unintentionally downed a civilian American UAV near Al-Tanf; this near-stroke in the Syria skies set hearts racing among experts concerned by both nations’ lack of established protocols and Russia’s continued involvement in international territorial issues.
• **The Ukrainian Conflict (ongoing since 2014): Repeated shelling between Ukraine’s forces (Armed Forces of Ukraine [AFU]) and Ukrainian Separatist militia(s), as well as possible interference from Russia has further soured US-USSR relations and exacerbated distrust of both parties by analysts worldwide.

How Serious Is the Threat of a U.S.-Russian Conflict?

Several sources acknowledge a relatively increased tension, but most doubt major open warfare between superpower. According to:

• CSIS analysis, while some think wars have a high, unlikely potential, a strong major outbreak of violence doesn’t exist at this juncture.
• The Rand Corporation estimates there exist roughly three potential outcomes among policymakers worldwide:
  Stabilization at today’s low-to-modest state,
  Conflict involving border actions in eastern Ukraine or airspace proximity conflicts, or

  Escalation into World War-II–like chaos globally

  • [see also our section on escalation of these crises below].

Turmoil: In-between Phases, Risks Unfolding In Three Layers |