Is Iran in war with Israel?

Is Iran in war with Israel?

One of the most pressing questions in the Middle East today is whether Iran is at war with Israel. The answer, surprisingly, is no.

What happened before?

Before we dive into whether Iran is at war with Israel, let’s have a brief look at how it all started. Historically, Iran and Israel have had a complicated and tumultuous relationship. Despite the fact that Iran (then known as Persia) was one of the earliest countries to recognize the State of Israel in 1948, the country has long been a stalwart supporter of the Arab-led Palestinian cause.

Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, anti-Zionist sentiment peaked, and Iran became vocal in its opposition to the Jewish state. In response, Israel launched a botched operation to rescue Jewish refugees from Iran in the late 1970s, which led to severe consequences for the hostages’ lives.

Khobar Towers bombing 1996

In 1996, Iran-backed Hezbollah blew up the Khobar Towers, a residential complex for U.S. military and contractor personnel in Saudi Arabia. The bombing killed nineteen U.S. servicemembers and wounded hundreds, including several Israeli citizens, as it was a site of joint U.S-Israeli military operations.

It’s essential to note that no formal declaration of war ensued. Instead, the governments involved focused on diplomatic avenues, with the United Nations (UN) Security Council issuing a statement condemning the attack.

“Special Relationship” between Quds Force and Hezbollah**

Tehran has long leveraged its influence over pro-Iranian militant and terrorist groups, including Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias. The Qods Force, an elite Special Forces unit within the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps), has been extensively involved in supporting these organisations, often through covert operations. These ties have led Israel to perceive Iran as sponsoring anti-Israeli terrorism globally.

Conflicting interests and proxy war in Syria

The Syrian Civil War, which began in 2011, has had far-reaching implications for Iranian-Israeli relations. Iran has been a strategic ally of the Syrian Government, providing military and strategic support to President Bashar Assad. Israel, sensing the rise of Iranian dominance in the region, fears an Iranian-backed "Greater Syria" would threaten national security.

In response to these concerns, Israel repeatedly strikes Iranian-backed forces inside Syria, often targeting air bases, military convoys, and weapons depots. These actions have driven Iranian forces to retaliate with rocket attacks and raids. * The proxy warfare between Iran and Israel’s ally, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is another aspect of their complex relationship.

Cyber warfare as an alternative to conventional strikes

Notwithstanding the absence of outright warfare, Iran and Israel engage in a covert race of cyber warfare. Incidents like the 2007 and 2018 hacking attacks on Israeli databases by Iranian hackers, dubbed the "Lion-IV" and "Ajax-2" operations respectively, demonstrate the intensity and strategic importance of this quiet warfare.

Zarif’s “missed opportunity” and JCPOA’s demise 2018

In 2013, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif and the P5+1 States (China, France, Germany, Russia, UK, and the United States) signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a UN-approved nuclear deal aimed to restrict Iran’s nuclear potential in exchange for sanctions relaxation.

The JCPOA, however, faced heavy opposition from Israel, which sought more stringent measures to mitigate what it perceived as regional instability. In 2018, the United States, under President Donald Trump, withdrew from the JCPOA, citing concerns it failed to address Iran’s nuclear ambitions and regional ballistic missile development.

Conclusion: No WAR between Iran and Israel… yet

To summarize, while conflict exists between Iran and Israel through proxy wars, unofficial and covert operations, terrorism support, and cyber war, there is no traditional warfare between the two sides.

The ongoing proxy violence and tensions are largely caused by conflicting interests, Iranian-backed militant groups, Syria’s civil war, Israel’s security concerns, cyber attacks, and the controversy surrounding the JCPOA’s demise.

As history demonstrates, the Middle Eastern theatre is prone to eruptions of violence. Only a comprehensive diplomatic effort backed by international cooperation can stabilise the region and possibly avoid a full-scale conflict between Iran and Israel.

Potential Implications of a formal conflict:

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