Is the US Getting Ready for War?
The answer to this question is not a straightforward yes or no. In today’s volatile global environment, the US is preparing for various conflicts and responding to emerging security threats, but it is difficult to say whether these preparations signal a full-blown effort towards war.
Historical Context:
In recent years, the world has witnessed the rise of major powers such as China and Russia, who have increasingly challenged US dominance on the global stage. Additionally, the Islamic State’s territorial losses in Iraq and Syria have given way to the emergence of new, decentralized terrorist organizations. Amidst these evolving security landscape, the US has refocused its defense strategy on Great Power Competition, designating China as its most significant strategic competitor.
Bipartisanship and Budget Allocations:
In May 2019, Congress passed a $716 billion Defense Authorization Act, which, for the first time since 2014, marked a significant increase in military spending. The spending increase was aimed at upgrading the US military’s conventional forces, while also prioritizing investments in emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities, and hypersonic missiles.
- Key allocation highlights:
- 45% for personnel expenses
- 35% for operations and maintenance
- 12% for research and development
- 8% for procurement
Moreover, President Trump signed an Executive Order in April 2018, declaring the use of Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) by Russia, China, or any other nation is "imminent," and instructed the Secretary of Defense to develop new weapons to address this threat. This executive order laid the groundwork for the United States to reconsider its moratorium on land-based mid-range missiles, which have been banned under the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty since the Cold War.
Arms Races and Agreements:
The breakdown in arms control agreements between the US, Russia, and China is a concern for many strategists and experts. The US-Russia nuclear arms talks have stalled since the INF Treaty collapse, leaving a power vacuum in regional arms control negotiations. Similarly, the US-China arms race in the Indo-Pacific region has raised tensions, particularly over Beijing’s expanded military activities in the South China Sea.
- Examples of recent developments:
- China’s anti-ship missile capabilities and surface-to-air missile deployments in the South China Sea
- Russia’s increased military presence in eastern Ukraine and near the Estonian border
A Look Ahead:
To mitigate these rising tensions and uncertainties, the Pentagon is focusing on the "Quad" alignment between the US, Japan, India, and Australia – an informal diplomatic and military coalition aimed at strengthening regional alliances and countering China’s influence. This grouping might evolve into a more formal collective defense mechanism, paving the way for greater security cooperation and increased joint military capabilities.
Is the US Getting Ready for War?
In conclusion, the US is, indeed, preparing for multiple scenarios, which may unfold into various levels of conflict, including conventional war, information warfare, and nuclear posturing. The increased spending on defense and the recent shifts in policy reflect the US desire to preserve its global preeminence and deterrence capabilities, rather than any immediate likelihood of war. However, as the strategic landscape evolves, it is essential for global stakeholders to monitor these developments and engage in open, inclusive dialogue to prevent conflict and promote collective security.
