What Would a US Iran War Look Like?
A war between the United States and Iran would be one of the most devastating and complex conflicts in recent memory. With both countries having substantial military capabilities, it is crucial to understand what a war between them would entail.
Initial Strikes and Border Conflicts
The most likely scenario for a US-Iran war would involve an initial strike by one or both sides, which could lead to a protracted conflict. American air and naval assets could target Iranian military bases and strategic infrastructure, including radars, command centers, and ballistic missile sites [1].
Simultaneously, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would retaliate against US forces in the region, aiming to disrupt supply lines, logistics, and communication [2]. They might also target diplomatic and commercial installations like embassies, businesses, and ports [3].
Wider Consequences
- Regional Instability: A US-Iran war would create a ripple effect, spilling over to neighboring countries, including:
- Iraq: Fear of Iranian retaliation against Baghdad and Kurdish areas.
- Syria: Projections of a US-backed " buffer zone" against Shia militia.
- Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates: Potential Iranian retaliations against US allies.
- Israel: Tension over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the "Dayton Accords".
- Turkey: Risk of NATO’s southern flank under pressure.
- OIL SUPPLY: Prices could skyrocket, reaching $100 per barrel or more, leading to economic chaos and fuel for further conflict [4].
- HEALTH CONSEQUENCES: War could expose millions to radiation and airborne toxins, as well as disrupt healthcare services [5].
Ways to Escalation
Several factors could precipitate an escalation:
• Cyber Warfare: "Hack-and-dust" attacks on each side’s critical infrastructure could compromise operations and trigger retaliations [6].
• Naval Confrontations: A clash at sea, such as over tanker escorts or border protection, could lead to skirmishes and sinking of naval vessels [7].
• Air Intercepts: Fighter jets "scrambling for intercepts" could engage and exchange fire, raising risks of civilian casualties [8].
International Reaction
- Other World Powers: Major European countries, China, India, and Russia might opt for neutrality, though offering support to their allies [9].
- United Nations and EU: International pressure through resolutions, sanctions, or diplomacy could aim to cool down tensions [10].
- Regional Players: Iran-allied states like Venezuela and Lebanon might provide backing through rhetorical support, economic or military aid [11].
Futile War Objectives?
Both the United States and Iran might engage in a war without discernible objectives, which raises concerns about the viability and morality of the conflict. The absence of clear goals would encourage:
• Military actions leading to humanitarian crises: Protracted battles could cause humanitarian catastrophes, jeopardizing the well-being and security of civilians.
• Strategic uncertainty: War would likely involve significant miscommunication, misinterpretations, and misunderstandings leading to unintended consequences.
- Unlimited financial obligations: A war could bleed both nations’ coffers dry, potentially creating existential threats to their economies [12].
- Loss of Legitimacy: Perceived as an illegitimate and unnecessary war, its proponents might face significant challenges to their domestic and global standing [13].
A Protracted Conflict
Given these dynamics, a US-Iran war could devolve into a prolonged and destructive conflict with unclear objectives. Considering the geopolitics, economic factors, and human impact, it is highly unlikely that this war would achieve decisive success or bring about lasting gains.
In conclusion, a US-Iran war would be a catastrophic confluence of regional and international interests, leading to protracted instability, devastating loss of life, and colossal economic damage. As highlighted, a US-Iran war would not come without severe consequences, ultimately harming the very fabric of international relations and the resilience of global security
