Is the U.S. Going to War with Iran?
The possibility of a war between the United States and Iran has loomed large in recent weeks, sparking concerns about what such a conflict would entails. With tensions between both nations at an all-time high, many are wondering just how close we are to a full-blown showdown. In this article, we’ll explore the current geopolitical landscape and provide a analysis of the likelihood of another war breaking out.
<The Escalations>
The current spike in tensions between the US and Iran began in October 2019, when the US launched Operation Sentinel-, a military reconnaissance mission in the Persian Gulf to protect US-flagged navigation and prevent any potential retaliatory attacks by Iran: [1]. These tensions were further exacerbated over the next few weeks: [2].
But what triggered these escalations? There are several perspectives to consider:
• Drone strikes: On January 3, 2021, _ISIS-Khorasan,_ a regional affiliate of extremist group ISIS, launched attack on US-led coalition convoys in Kabul, Kandahar, in which a US drone operating in Afghanistan was shot and crashed in Iran: [3]. Despite claims that the drone unintentionally crossed into Iranian skies, the US has criticized Iran’s handling of it.
• Seizures of tankers: Within weeks of the drone takedown, _oil tankers_ related to Saudi Arabia and Yemen were seized by Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (I.R.G.C.) sailors: [4] – a move widely seen by the US as an unwarranted provocation for international oil transportation.
And, on June 2019, IRGC commander Hossein Daliri, in rare public comments, warned the US that Iran knew how to target American installations in the region:, "If the Yankees come to the Persian Gulf, they will be wiped out. We will no longer have to fight anymore".
< What Does War Mean?: A Review of the Fallout>
War between America and Iran would have major implications for the region:
• Regional Instabilities: War could displace millions of people: , according to think tank International Crisis Group[5], and bring further instability with regional allies, such, as the UAE, or rival countries like Turkey taking sides**: [6],
• Oil Prices Rises: A war impacting oil supply would lead worldwide oil price spikes
• Terrorized Populations: Reports of Iran-backed militias employing terror tactics)_, to spread fear, and local humanitarian efforts, for refugees_, would multiply
• Global Fallout: A war engaging major global powers could engulf regional ** alliances,), , and beyond, causing global economic woes, supply chain disruptions )_
< The Peace Talks and the Road Behind>
While the escalating tensions may have reached, a peak, historical precedent shows that some form of dialogue has happened: [7] or at least the talks about talks_[8], between sides.
_International diplomacy , **‘s_, France and Germany [9]**, have continued to try to mediating the dispute.
- Key figures in both countries share a willingness to restart dialogue : [https://www.bbc *.com/news/world](https://www.uk/news/world-middle -east- 51221935)
< Recent Developments>
June 20, 24, Iran’s Navy Chief warned the I.R.G.C. troops in the Persian Gulf , : "Do not let" the US infiltrate your ranks…": [10] A message which seems to warn of the danger of military defection** , .
In previous years, the US repeatedly has used sanctions to target Iranian military _. However, despite a few instances: [11], including the ‘s U.S. drone strike –, no significant military strike has occurred yet.
Is the US going to-war with Iran? The answer is: no – for now. Reasons to doubt further escalation are:
• Continued diplomatic efforts: Some dialogue and negotiation in place between nations
• Historical precedents on mediation
• The risk of economical costs a war
• Alternative strategies, like precision strikes and **cybervassalage[12]_
However *, a small chance [13] remains, given uncertainty’ and _ _immediate action and tensions build up further. Time will tell .
If the _US-led coalition _ and military allies do engage in Iran, it could have far-reaching consequences throughout the Middle East and eventually globally**.
Is the U.S. Preparing for War with Another Nation?
