Is the United States About to Go to War?
As the threat of war looms around the world, the possibility of the United States launching a military attack on an enemy nation has become an increasingly pressing concern. There are several conflicts and challenges that the US is faced with, from the continuing threat of terrorism to an increasingly aggressive China, raising questions about whether the world’s most powerful nation will soon be embroiled in a full-scale conflict.
What is America’s Military Position?
Before exploring the likelihood of war, it is necessary to examine the current military position of the United States. The US has over 1.3 million active-duty personnel, representing the largest military force the world has ever seen (). The country’s military has a global presence, with troops stationed in over 170 countries across the world.
The current military budget of the United States is a staggering $721 billion (), making the country’s military spending exceeds that of the next top 10 military spenders combined. This massive fiscal allocation has allowed the United States to maintain a top-of-the-line military structure, with the world’s most advanced weapons systems.
What are the Present Conflicts and Challenges for the US?
Although the US is not presently engaged in a full-blown war, there are several conflicts and challenges on its plate:
• Terrorism: This is a perpetual threat. The US is still experiencing the consequences of 9/11, with global terrorist organizations such as Isis and Al-Qaeda posing dangers to American interests.
• North Korea: Washington has been in a years-long standoff with Pyongyang following the latter’s nuclear programs and missile tests.
• China: The situation in the South China Sea has become increasingly tense since China’s rapid military construction and territorial expansion in these waters.
• Afghanistan: The prolonged conflict in Afghanistan, waged against the Taliban and against Al-Qaeda, continues in its 18th year.
• Syrian Civil War: The battle against the Islamic State may be over, but violence continues in the country despite the efforts of the multinational coalition.
The Realities of War
Assessing the likelihood of war is complicated, making it difficult to provide definitive answers. The decision-makers in Washington are constantly weighing the risks and benefits of waging war, taking a multitude of factors into consideration. Here are some scenarios that could potentially lead the US to go to war:
• A pre-emptive strike by North Korea: In theory, if North Korea senses an imminent attack by another nation, it may undertake a pre-emptive strike against its enemies ().
• An incursion by China: Military analysts believe that if Taiwan were to be invaded () or if the South China Sea situation were to explode into a conflict, American forces might need to mobilize to defend the international order.
• Disaster in the Middle East: The chaos in a region where American troops had been stationed could trigger unpredictable consequences, and Washington cannot rule out the possibility that it might be forced into a military response to establish order.
What Dangers Does the US Fear?
There are five primary dangers that the United States fears in terms of war:
• Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD): Following the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962), both NATO and the Warsaw Pact acquired nuclear weapons to prevent adversaries from launching an attack since the potential consequences of a nuclear war would be catastrophic ()
• Asymmetric Conflicts: Wars are far more complex now than at any time in history with the proliferation of guerrillas, terrorist organizations, special forces, and cyber-capabilities, which could change the dynamics of war profoundly.
• Proxy Conflict: Wars could involve supporting proxy forces in foreign theatre, as has been accomplished in the Middle East region.
• Unidentified Actors: Unpredictability is a constant companion throughout history, as witnessed recently in the unexpected emergence and rapid growth of the terror group Isis.
• Cyber War: States and non-state actors pose a significant threat through malware, hacking, and disruptive attacks on infrastructure and businesses.
The Bottom-Line
The possibility of an American war cannot be brushed aside. Although there does not appear to be the same level of global strategic threat as existed during past conflicts, the United States is still faced with various serious challenges. These dangers mean that the risk of large-scale conflict cannot be discredited. However, caution and diplomacy can go along way in avoiding a dangerous escalation of conflicts. Time will tell if the military might of the United States will be utilized to maintain peaceful order or if a further escalation of hostilities, potentially leading to a bigger war, could become its fate.
Conclusion