Is Yemen Going to War with Israel?
The possibility of war between Yemen and Israel has been a topic of increasing concern in recent years. Tensions have been escalating between the two nations, and several factors suggest that a military conflict is not far-fetched. In this article, we will examine the reasons why Yemen and Israel are headed for war and the possible consequences of such a conflict.
Why Yemen May Go to War with Israel
Before diving into the possibility of war, let’s examine the reasons why Yemen may want to go to war with Israel:
Political Factors
- Yemen’s Shia-led Houthi rebels have been accused of receiving military aid from Iran, a close ally of Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which is backed by Iran.
- The Houthi rebels have been in control of large parts of Yemen since 2015 and have been supported by Iran, leading Israel to see them as a threat.
- Israel views Iran’s influence in the region as a significant challenge to its own national security.
Military Factors
- Iranian-supplied Missiles: Iran has provided Yemen’s Houthi rebels with advanced missile systems, which have been used to attack Israeli vessels and territorial waters.
- Proximity: Yemen shares a border with Israel’s self-proclaimed nuclear-armed ally, Jordan, which has been providing military assistance to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).
- Golan Heights: Israel’s controversial annexation of the Golan Heights, which lies in occupied Syrian territory, has increased tensions with nearby countries like Yemen.
Economic Factors
- Ongoing Crisis: Yemen has been mired in a humanitarian crisis, with a significant portion of its population suffering from malnutrition, poverty, and displacement.
- Deteriorating Infrastructure: Yemen’s infrastructure has been severely damaged due to continuous conflicts, making it vulnerable to attacks.
- International Involvement: The presence of foreign military forces in Yemen, such as those from the Saudi-led coalition, has heightened tensions with Israel.
Consequences of War
If war were to break out between Yemen and Israel, the consequences would be severe and far-reaching. Here are some possible scenarios:
| Consequences | Impact |
|---|---|
| Humanitarian Crisis | Thousands of civilians would be displaced, and an already precarious humanitarian situation would worsen. |
| Regional Tensions | War could lead to a destabilization of the entire Middle East, causing regional tensions to escalate further. |
| Military Confrontations | Israel could employ its airpower to destroy Yemeni military infrastructure and target Iranian-backed rebels, leading to a military response from Iran. |
| International Involvement | The conflict could attract international involvement, as regional powers like the United States, Iran, and Saudi Arabia have vested interests in the region. |
| Economic Havoc | Trade flows, economic growth, and international business would suffer severely due to the war. |
In Conclusion
It is highly unlikely that Yemen and Israel will engage in an outright war, given the various complexities involved. However, increased tensions and proxy wars between Iran, Hezbollah, and Saudi Arabia have already begun. Israel will likely maintain a diplomatic, intelligence-driven, and proxy-based strategy to undermine Iran’s influence in Yemen and other parts of the region.
Why?
Israel has already begun to deploy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), like the US-made F-16 and F-15 fighter jets, to Yemen to counter Iranian-backed drones and precision-guided weapons. The IDF has also maintained a secret relationship with the Saudi-led coalition to gather intelligence and share intelligence on Iran and Hezbollah.
Key Players
The following countries play a significant role in determining the future of Yemen’s relationship with Israel:
- United States: Supports Israel, but has limited involvement in Yemen due to its involvement in the Syria conflict and concerns over Islamic State.
- Saudi Arabia: Has led a coalition against the Houthis and receives significant support from the US and UK. Its goals align with Israel’s concerns over Iranian influence.
- Iran: Supports the Houthis through military and financial aid and sees Israel as a long-standing rival.
In light of the above analysis, it is crucial for leaders in the region to focus on dialogue and diplomatic channels to ease tensions and mitigate the risks of conflict. With the humanitarian crisis in Yemen still ongoing, any direct military conflict between Yemen and Israel could have catastrophic consequences for civilians and regional stability.
Will Yemen go to war with Israel? Probably not directly, but increased tensions, proxy wars, and strategic military engagements between regional powers will likely define the landscape in the short term.
