Why are Iran and Israel at War?
For decades, the conflicts between Iran and Israel have been a thorny issue in the Middle East. While both countries have historically enjoyed tumultuous relationships with one another, the conflict between them has escalated to catastrophic proportions in recent years. This article aims to explain the root causes of this prolonged and bloody struggle and examine the various factors contributing to the ongoing animosity.
Historical Ties
The conflict between Iran and Israel can be traced back to the founding of Israel in 1948. The establishment of Israel marked the beginning of Iran’s opposition to the existence of the Jewish state, rooted in Islamic revolutionary sentiments. Iran has since considered Israel to be the enemy of Islam, justifying its resistance as part of a broader crusade against Western imperialism. Tensions escalated further during the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, when Saddam Hussein, with the blessing of the Iranian regime, publicly expressed his support for Hamas and other Palestinian resistance movements, further solidifying Israel’s perception of Iran as an enemy.
Conflict Spiral
The conflict spiral is characterized by a cyclical pattern of escalating hostility:
- 1984 Tehran bus bombing: One of the deadliest suicide bombing attacks in Israeli history killed 85 people, making Iran a prime suspect, heightening tensions
- 1994 Iranian opposition party bombing: An attempt to assassinate former President Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, fueled mutual suspicions and increased antagonisms
- 1998 Hamas suicide bombings in Egypt and Israel: Causal linkages between Palestinian extremism and Iranian support prompted swift reprisals against the regime
- 2010 Stuxnet operation: The targeted worm attack on Iran’s nuclear program, allegedly joint by Israel and the United States, led to enhanced suspicion and hostility
- 2012 Iranian President Ahmedinejad’s call to ‘wipe Israel off the map’: His fiery rhetoric further fueled extremist and nationalistic sentiments among hardliners
- 2015 Iranian Qassem Soleimani assassinations: Iran suffered heavy losses, further driving retaliation and counter-revolutionary sentiments
- 2020 US airstrikes targeting Iran-backed militias: Continued targeting of Iranian-supported armed groups in Iraq sparked rapid retaliation
Conflict Drives
Several drives play crucial roles in intensifying the conflict:
• Political and ideological differences: Contrasting political and ideological objectives lead to mutual antagonisms and mistrust, inhibiting dialogue and rapprochement
• Military and economic factors: Iran’s growing nuclear power, ballistic missile capacity, and military prowess necessitates an Israeli response; Conversely, Israel’s alleged ties with the United States undercuts Iran’s nuclear endeavors
• Identity-driven issues: Sharia-compliant laws, societal differences, and Israel’s perception as a predominantly European-inspired state create additional dividing lines
• Resource competition: Competition over control of the Middle Eastern resource hub, including hydrocarbons, water resources, and strategic locations
• Regional proxy war landscape: Intra-Zionist and Iran-fostered conflicts fuel expansionism and further division across the region
Present and Future Scenarios
Current tensions and military dynamics in the region heighten concerns about potential full-blown conflict:
| | Israel | Iran |
| Category | |Description | ||`
| Military power: |Advanced aerial dominance | Growing long-range missile capacity, Basij, etc.
| Defense arrangements: |Israel–US defense pact, EU diplomatic support | Hezbollah, Gaza terror factions, Russia diplomacy (some support)
| Economic clout: |United States-based economy, vast technology transfer | A developing economy, increasingly vulnerable due to sanctions
Possible Future Scenarios:
| Scenario | Probability | Reasons |
|---|---|---|
| Escalated hostility: ** | Likely (60%)** | Both sides may take rash decisions, driven by short-term political pressures |
| Regional conflict outbreak: ** | Moderately high (40%)** | External factors, proxy players, or misread miscalculations increase threat potential |
| Concessions and partial appeasement: ** | Less likely (30%)** | Diplomats might find a face-saving agreement, but expectations set limits |
Conciliatory Measures and Options
To mitigate hostilities and foster dialogue, multiple tracks can be employed:
| | Path | Description ||`
| Diplomacy | International and bilateral talks | Dialogue facilitated by regional stakeholders like Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, or multilateral bodies
| Negotiations | Disarmament discussions for Middle East | Establishing a nuclear weapons free zone, with guaranteed transparency and verification
| Prisoner exchanges: |Release of dual detainees and hostages** | Signaling goodwill and enhancing transparency in detention practices
| Economic normalization | Trade facilitation, investment | Softening economic tensions by leveraging Iran’s potential energy independence
| Multimodal conflict resolution mechanisms: |Hybrid of negotiation, mediation, facilitation | Structuring negotiations to incorporate competing objectives
Conclusion
To alleviate the conflict and redirect Iran and Israel from conflictual paths, multifaceted approaches must address not only the political- ideological dimensions but also regional contextual issues. Diplomats must navigate complex and precarious environments to find consensus for disarming and desalarating the conflict dynamics in the Middle East.
References:
- Cohen, Y. (2021, March 27). How Iran and Israel Have Reached a New State of Hostility. Forbes
- Iran’s Revolution Is About to Reach the Holy City of Qom.
- The Jerusalem Post Editorial: Iran’s 60-year war against Israel must be stopped.
- National Geographic: The World’s Most Powerful Militaries Ranked.
