Will China and Philippines go to war?

Will China and Philippines Go to War?

The South China Sea has been a flashpoint in the Asia-Pacific region, with China’s increasing assertiveness in the area causing tensions to rise between Beijing and its neighbors, including the Philippines. The dispute over the Scarborough Shoal, a group of reefs and rocks claimed by both China and the Philippines, has been a major point of contention between the two countries. In this article, we will explore the likelihood of war between China and the Philippines and the implications of such a conflict.

Background to the Dispute

The Scarborough Shoal is a disputed territory in the South China Sea, claimed by both China and the Philippines. The shoal is located about 125 miles (200 km) west of the main Philippine island of Luzon and is a popular spot for fishing and tourism. In 2012, China’s naval vessels prevented Philippine ships from approaching the shoal, leading to a standoff between the two countries.

The Philippines’ Claim

The Philippines claims the Scarborough Shoal as part of its territory, citing historical and geographical evidence. The Philippines has also pointed out that the shoal is closer to the Philippines than it is to China. The Philippines has also cited the 2002 Joint Declaration on South China Sea Issues, which was signed by China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which recognized the need to resolve disputes through peaceful means and without resorting to the use of force.

China’s Claim

China claims the Scarborough Shoal as part of its Nine-Dash Line, a U-shaped boundary that marks China’s claimed territorial waters in the South China Sea. China has argued that the shoal is part of its historical territory and has a long history of fishing and navigation in the area. China has also claimed that the Philippines’ claim to the shoal is invalid, as it is not supported by international law.

Tensions Rise

Tensions between China and the Philippines have risen in recent years, with both sides engaging in provocative actions. In 2013, China deployed a hundreds-strong fishing fleet to the Scarborough Shoal, which was seen as a provocation by the Philippines. The Philippines has also accused China of using paramilitary vessels to intimidate Philippine fishermen and prevent them from accessing the shoal.

Military Build-Up

Both China and the Philippines have been building up their military capabilities in the South China Sea. China has been expanding its naval and air power, while the Philippines has been increasing its military spending and acquiring new equipment, including US-made F-16 fighter jets.

Diplomatic Efforts

Despite the tensions, both sides have been engaging in diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute. In 2016, the Philippines and China signed a Framework for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, which aimed to reduce tensions and prevent the use of force. The Philippines has also been pushing for international arbitration to resolve the dispute, but China has refused to participate.

Likelihood of War

Despite the tensions, the likelihood of war between China and the Philippines is still relatively low. Both sides have an interest in avoiding conflict, as it would have severe economic and diplomatic consequences. According to a study by the RAND Corporation, a war between China and the Philippines would have a devastating impact on the global economy, with estimated losses of up to $2.5 trillion.

However, there are still risks of conflict. If tensions continue to escalate, and one side perceives a threat to its national security, it may take provocative action.

Conclusion

The dispute over the Scarborough Shoal is a complex issue that has the potential to escalate into conflict. While both sides have an interest in avoiding war, the tensions between China and the Philippines are unlikely to dissipate anytime soon. To reduce the risk of conflict, both sides must engage in more constructive dialogue and work towards a peaceful resolution.

Table: Key Dates in the Dispute

Table: Military Spending and Equipment

References

• "The South China Sea Dispute: A Chronology of Events" by the Lowy Institute
• "The Philippines and the South China Sea: A Timeline of Key Events" by the Diplomat
• "A War with China Over the South China Sea Would Be a Disaster" by the RAND Corporation